The Government's credit capital for the above central budget balance includes: central budget deficit loan exceeding 217 trillion VND; the central budget's capital repayment loan is over 217 trillion dong; 9.1 trillion social security debt loans.
In order to ensure the fulfillment of the task of mobilizing government loans, the mobilized source of capital is expected in 2020 as follows: issuance of domestic government bonds is about 300,000 billion HND; disbursement of ODA loans and foreign preferential loans amounted to NND 107,400 billion; mobilized from the state budget and other sources at standstill, about 95,400 billion VND.
In terms of debt repayment obligations, the government expects to pay around 379,100 billion HND in 2020.
With the expectation of debt and debt repayment by the government, local governments, … it is projected that by the end of 2020 public debt will be around 54.3% of GDP, government debt will be around 48.5% of GDP, external debt to national GDP is about 45.5%.
The government acknowledged that while public debt and government debt to GDP indicators continued to decline compared to previous years, this trend partly reflected the progress in public investment payments, especially foreign sources. , very slowly. This limits the contribution to growth from borrowing, on the other hand, the budget still has to bear the costs of signed and unpaid loans.
In addition, although the size of the government debt portfolio by the end of 2019 is well controlled at 49.2% of GDP (compared to 52.7% in 2016; 50% in 2018), along with the impact Because Vietnam graduated in The 2017 IDA, the government's portfolio-to-portfolio risk ratio, appears to be less favorable than before.
The report shows that one of the reasons why the government debt portfolio is less favorable than before is that the risk of refinancing focuses on government debt due to centralized repayment obligations. For some years (10.3% of the government's domestic debt portfolio is due in 2020), there is liquidity risk to the state budget.
Especially for the list of domestic government bonds, the obligation to repay the government bonds focuses on several times during the year and between 2020-2021. In addition, government bonds issued in foreign currency in foreign currency worth US $ 1.7 billion will mature in 2020 and 2021 and must be denominated in foreign currency for payment.
Expected liabilities for direct repayment of the government in relation to state budget revenues in 2020 is around 23%, approaching the 25% threshold allowed by the National Assembly in 2016-2020.
"The proper use of the revised GDP scale to set public debt ceilings and thresholds for the period 2021-2025 should be carefully considered to ensure sustainability of the debt portfolio across the target. repayment of government debt against state budget revenues, "the report said.
In addition, the report stated that the interest rate risk on foreign debt portfolio tended to increase as a result of the increase in the percentage of floating rate loans (of 8.8% of government foreign loans). in 2015 to 11.4% in 2019).
It is envisaged that the conditions on the international capital market will be tightened in the coming period, and the Government's obligations to pay the external debt will increase accordingly.