According to the report, there is an 85% chance that this year will end up ranking as the second warmest.
This year is more likely to be the second or third warmest calendar year on the planet since modern temperature data collection began in 1880, according to data released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This reflects the increased impact of long-term, human-caused global warming, and is particularly significant as there was a lack of strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific this year. Such events are usually associated with the hottest years as they raise global ocean temperatures and add large amounts of heat to the atmosphere across the Pacific Ocean, the largest in the world.
According to a new report released on Monday, there is about an 85% chance this year to round out the ranking as the second-warmest in the NOAA dataset, with the possibility of sliding it to No. 3. Overall, however, it is practically certain (greater than 99%). chance) that 2019 will end up being the top-five-hottest year in the world.
NOAA revealed that the average global surface temperature of the land and ocean for October was 1.76 degrees (0.98 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average, just 0.11 from the shy of the record warm October set in 2015.
Astonishingly, the 10 warmest Octobers have happened since 2003, and the top five warmest such months since 2015.
October 2019 was the 43rd direct October to be warmer than the 20th century average, and the 418th direct warmer-than average month. This means that someone younger than 38 has not lived through a colder than average year from a global perspective.
So far this year, global land and ocean temperatures have reached 1.69 degrees Celsius (0.94 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average, just 0.16 degrees Celsius below the record warmest date to date set in 2016, NOAA revealed.
Other agencies that track global temperatures may rank 2019 slightly different from NOAA's, though their overall data is likely to be similar. NASA, for example, interpolates temperatures across the Arctic on the assumption that temperatures in the region are similar to their nearest location for observation. NOAA, on the other hand, leaves parts of the Arctic out of its data.
Given that the Arctic is warming more than twice the rate of the rest of the world, this means that NOAA data could be slightly underestimated at global temperatures, though not much.
To illustrate the differences that may arise between surveillance agencies, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service ranked October as the hottest such month on Earth, slightly exhausting October 2016. NASA and NOAA, on the other hand, made their lists on October 2nd.
Copernicus uses computer modeling data to monitor the planet's climate in near real-time, compared to NASA and NOAA's ground-based weather stations, which may be prone to biases involving precise seating and other problems. However, both agencies are working to adjust their records to eliminate such problems.
At the end of the day, what's important is the long-term trend over many years to decades, and this shows a clear, sharp spike that scientists have shown can only be explained by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. , in the atmosphere.
Human activities, namely the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and energy oil, are major contributors to greenhouse gases.
According to NOAA, there were record warm October temperatures across parts of the North and West Pacific Ocean, north-eastern Canada, and scattered across parts of the South Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean and South America.
The only record-cold region for this month was in the western United States, where much of Rocky was in record-breaking cold this month. Interestingly, despite El Niño's absence in the tropical Pacific, global average sea surface temperatures are ranked as the second warmest record for the month, with less than a tenth of a degree behind record-breaking 2016, when there was an intense Event.
The oceans absorb the vast majority of the extra heat pumped into the climate system to produce greenhouse gases, with heat content as measured below the surface reaching a record level.
(Except for the title, this story is not edited by BATV staff and published by a syndicated source.)
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