Worldwide investments – World markets continue to rise, by 20 o'clock Moscow, 500 added 0.9 per cent, reaching the level on October 26 last year, respectively, almost defeated the losses of the last long recession. Boeing's shares (NYSE 🙂 rose 5.2% for serious news: sales and profit for the 2108 largely exceeded forecasts by analysts, the company also said that in 2019 it plans to provide 900 commercial aircraft against 806 in 2019. Apple's shares (NASDAQ 🙂 rose 4.3 percent after reporting a sharp increase in sales of services, and its executive director Tim Cooke said trade tensions between the United States and China were easing.
However, where Apple's director took such information is not quite clear: the latest US-Chinese news was the introduction of official charges against the United States against Huawei, which can hardly contribute to "reducing tensions".
The growth of the market is partly due to the continuing expectations for mitigating rhetoric after the Fed meeting, which began today. Economic news is not very good: according to ADP, the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector in the United States increased by 213 thousand in December, compared to the forecast of 180.9 thousand. and as a consequence – the growing pressure on the labor market. At the same time, sales of real estate are falling, the incomplete index of sales in December declined by 2.2% with the expected growth of 0.8%, and it is falling for the third month in a row. Many experts point out that the Fed is in a deadlock: the continued tightening of monetary policy will seriously harm the market and may not be useful to the economy as a whole. At the same time, refusing to raise the rate will look like recognition of problems in the economy and deviation of pressure from the leadership of the United States, which is, it can jeopardize the image of an independent regulator – and it's even worse than it does not increase the rate at the wrong time. However, there will be no luck, but the crash has helped: due to the government's "shatdaun," many economic reports are delaying, and the Fed leadership has a formal reason to keep silent.
Oil is rising in price because of news that US raw materials last week increased by only 0.9 million barrels, with a forecast for growth of 3.1 million barrels. The fact that this is still growth does not disturb anyone. Indeed, the fact that gas reserves in the country have declined by 2.24 million barrels, with a forecast of 2.8 million increases, is the first decline in the past nine weeks, it is indeed encouraging.
Another factor of growth is the continued development of the Venezuelan crisis. Today, authorities arrested the bills of President Juan Guado, who declared himself president and banned him from leaving overseas – an obvious response to the right to free the funds of the government and the Venezuelan central bank in the accounts of US banks. By 20.40 Moscow time, barrel futures rose by 1.8% to $ 62.3.
This situation seems to be extremely positive for the Russian economy. Only there, besides private funds (to the extent that private funds can be considered, for example, Rosneft funds (MCX :)), about $ 17 billion in debts are owed to government reserves, mainly weapons. Although experts often explain that "in fact, this weapon is still writing off, and the real figure should be split by 20," but it is still uncomfortable. On the eve of the Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Sergei Storchak admitted that, perhaps, there may be difficulties with getting debts from Venezuela. And today, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak acknowledged that Russian companies may have problems.
Today, Bloomberg, quoting two sources, said the Russian Boeing was located at the airport in Caracas, with Venezuelan officials planning to export 20 tons of gold worth about $ 840 million or about a fifth of the country's gold reserves. If this message proves to be true and Venezuela's current Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro is losing the power struggle, then it is not surprising that Russia and Russian companies may have problems in dealing with the country's new leadership. It should be noted that an attempt to evacuate the golden reserve is a pretty strong urge for Maduro's readiness for such an outcome. The Venezuelan government official denied the presence of the plane at the airport, although it has data on its flight to the FlightRadar website. The Russian authorities denied the involvement in the appearance of the plane. Apparently, someone else in Russia found Venezuela more expensive than Russian debts. However, to believe that someone in Russia in the current situation decided to drive the plane to Venezuela without the knowledge of the Russian authorities is even more difficult.
Meanwhile, the Russian market, like weeds, continues to grow on everything that is happening. The MosBirzh index, calculated in rubles, updated the historical maximum – 2513.77 points, and rose by the end of the day by 0.54%. The index, due to the strengthening of the ruble, increased strongly, by 0.64%. So when the ruble weakens again, the Moziris index will have a big difference in setting new records.
In fact, the ruble stubbornly asks for 66th place. Today, by 19 o'clock Moscow time, the dollar fell in price by 13 kopecks. up to 65.92 rubles. In addition to all of the above, in favor of the ruble – the weakness of the dollar, the rise in oil prices and other things, the seasonal factor continues to function. "The seasonality remains, in the first quarter of the market it is sleeping, imports are falling, and export revenues, whose peak falls at the end of the year, continue to flow – that is, the currencies are more than the market can digest. If nothing happens along oil and sanctions, then February is likely to be calm, this trend will continue, "says Oleg Solntsev, a leading expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Prediction.
Against the backdrop of continued interest in the ruble, the Ministry of Finance put a fully OFZ worth 25 billion rubles. – however, it reduced the volume of supply, obviously taking into account that the previous attempt to allocate 35 billion rubles at once. was not very successful. "We are put on the market, good demand, mainly local investors buy, there is a strong demand, with a strong ruble, an expected break in the Federal Reserve's interest rates and the interest of global investors in developing countries. smaller because they are more afraid of sanctions, "says BCS senior analyst Sergei Suverov. "This can take weeks and it's difficult to make plans later, because Russia's activity in the Venezuelan conflict can accelerate the development of this topic with sanctions."
(The text is prepared by Daniel Zhebalov)