The Arab world is waiting, as usual, for the results of the American elections, which will be held in three weeks, in the hope that this will make a difference in the policies pursued by the strongest, richest and most capable country in the world, in relation to its many, diverse and profound questions and problems.
As usual, the outcome of those elections, whether in favor of a second term by Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, or in favor of Eo Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, will not come with a big difference, unfortunately, in sense that this will not change much in US foreign policy in practice. And the difference will be only in tone or diplomatic behavior, from harsh and direct politics to soft and deviant politics.
Perhaps what needs to be realized here is that the foreign policy of the United States of America is characterized by continuity, because the institutions, lobbies and decision-making centers make that policy, with a smaller role for the president, and that refers to Middle East issues. , especially the issues of Palestine, Syria and the Iranian presence in the region. The interests of the United States as a country are represented, while the president (and his party) have more room in formulating domestic policies and decisions, ie where the direct interests of American voters, who have priority over domestic affairs and their living conditions (taxes) are represented. , health, education, work, infrastructure).
Thus, we can see that Trump’s policies did not differ much from those of his predecessor Obama, especially in the Palestinian and Syrian affairs, I mean in practice, while Barack Obama was gentler and more understandable, but only in theory. In fact, the policies pursued by President Obama have disappointed many political regimes and movements, especially in terms of silence about the Syrian regime and indifference to the Syrian tragedy and pressure on Israel over Palestinian rights and confronting Iranian influence in the Arab region. However, this disappointment and the resulting trauma depend on a brief and partial reading of American politics, as if it were a normal country and not a superpower, or how it operates according to the wishes and interests of this or that party, or how the motive is based on certain political , moral or ideological constants.
The story is illustrated by the fact that many of us think about politics with our emotions, desires, interests and mentality, which means that they do not think about it from the perspective of other countries, ie from their vision of themselves and their interests, and this is true. for the policies of the Obama administration, whether they like it or not.
On the other hand, they believe that the Arab countries have something to pressure the United States to pursue policies that are compatible with Arab interests, in this or that issue, while this is not the case, because the United States is the one who has the pressure cards. and power, especially as its experience confirms that no matter what it does, the countries concerned will not and will not be able to deviate from their readiness and dependence on them, especially in the economic, technological and security fields, which explains the difficulty of political separation from them.
The United States acts in accordance with the understanding of its interests as a superpower. They no longer care who controls the region, neither Russia, Turkey, Israel nor Iran, as long as it preserves its position and preserves its interests.
In addition to this, some believe that American policy is based on the same standards that occur in the Arab world, where the president is the one who decides everything, in terms of policies and options.
There is no doubt that the Obama administration’s Middle East policies are very disappointing, as it handed over Iraq to Iran after its withdrawal, and it seemed to make it easier for it to increase its influence, from Yemen to Lebanon, through Iraq and Syria; This is on the one hand. On the other hand, this administration refrained from any activities to stop the deterioration of the situation in Syria, but allowed the regime to continue killing and destroying it, and then to oblige it to Russia. In addition to these two, he refrained from any pressure on Israel that would lead to equitable rights for the Palestinians, and even swallowed all his speeches to freeze the settlement.
But what needs to be understood here is that the United States is behaving in this way based on an understanding of its interests as a superpower that no longer cares about who directly controls the region (neither Russia, Turkey, Israel, nor Iran), as long as it preserves its position and protects its interests. It does not affect its security, especially with its shifting interests to Southeast Asia and its growing dependence on its oil and gas reserves.
Perhaps this explains the fact that the US administration, during the Trump era, followed the dilemma of everyone, namely Russia, Iran and Turkey, and worked on exhausting and exhausting them and hitting them together, and this is not going back, but plays and punishes and does not manage conflict or crisis, but as an investment in them With her awareness of her ability to control and hold cards in force, she is the one who decides when and when.
However, we need to note two important and dangerous paths: The first is the destruction of the Arab East and the disintegration of its societies, especially Iraq and Syria. The second is to ensure Israel’s security and stability for decades, and the United States is not innocent of either this or that, with our governments being responsible for everything that happens to us and to those around us.
Therefore, those who are waiting for something new, from a practical point of view, will not find it, no matter who stays in the US White House, for the next four years, whether it is Trump or Biden.