Monday , June 14 2021

Find out about OPEC production quotas in October 2018 and demand expectations for 2019



Bloomberg said in the report that oil production in the US rose to record highs of 11.6 million barrels a day after rising by 400,000 barrels a day in the week ending November 2, 2018.

The number of drilling rigs in the United States has increased at the fastest pace since May 2018. In the week ending November 9, 2018, Increasing the number of 12 wells to 886 platforms.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA), in its long-term perspective, underlined the growing threat posed by electric cars and clean fuels to the demand for transport fuels.

However, in the long term, the world can see a supply crisis if insufficient investment is made to expand the oil production facilities, the agency said.

The growth in long-term demand will be driven by the industrial and petrochemical sectors, reads the IEA report.

On the supply side, the joint ministerial committee of the Member States and non-OPEC members stated that in 2019, supply growth could continue to be recorded, and the slowdown in global economic growth could lead to a deepening of the gap between demand and supply.

Bloomberg noted that despite the above, the producers jointly announced that they will see how the new trends in the oil market will develop before the final production policy plan for 2019 is drawn up.

Average OPEC production increased in the fifth consecutive month in October 2018 and reached a 23-month maximum of 33.33 million barrels per day, an increase of 430,000 barrels per day, according to Bloomberg.

However, the production growth rate according to OPEC's secondary sources was significantly lower at 127,000 barrels per day to 32.9 million barrels per day.

Libya recorded the largest monthly increase in production, and production reached its highest level in five and a half years at 1.22 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia has added 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in a month, with an average production of 10.68 million barrels per day, the highest level registered by the kingdom, according to Bloomberg.

The average production of OPEC has increased by more than 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2018, and Saudi Arabia itself has increased half of its growth or 0.71 million barrels per day.

The United Arab Emirates also increased production by 80,000 barrels per day to the highest level of 2 years, amounting to 3.12 million barrels per day, while marginal production in Iran dropped to 3.4 million barrels per day, although the OPEC secondary sources for Iranian production were estimated on 3.3 million barrels a day in October. 2018.

As a result of the increased production of OPEC, the involvement in PSA fell to 104 percent in October 2018. From 111 percent in September 2018.

Forecast of world demand for crude oil for 2018. It was lowered again, according to the latest OPEC monthly report worth 40,000 barrels a day.

The total demand is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels a day to 98.79 million barrels in 2018.

This correction was mainly due to the lower than expected decline in demand in the Middle East, China and other Asian regions in the third quarter of 2018, offsetting the high growth forecast for the OECD region by 50,000 barrels per day.

In the OECD region, demand remained high on the US side and was the main reason for the increase in expectations.

According to monthly data by August 2018, I preliminary data for September and October 2018, Trends in demand in the United States showed strong growth compared to the first 10 months of the year.

The main drivers of this increase were petrochemical raw materials, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), diesel in the industrial sector, aviation fuel and kerosene.

Demand for gasoline remained weak due to higher retail prices and profits from high efficiency in the transport sector, as data from August 2018 show that year-on-year growth remains unchanged despite a slight increase in car sales in a month.

On the other hand, demand trends are still weak for OECD countries compared to historical levels, as demand in four major countries (UK, Germany, Italy and France) fell in August 2018. Compensated by growing demand in Spain, the Netherlands, Turkey , Poland and many other countries. Area.

As for the demand for products from the beginning of 2018. Until now, the demand was strong for gasoline, aviation fuel, kerosene, LPG and demand for residual fuel oil, partially offset by lower demand for diesel and kerosene.

In addition, demand trends in these areas should remain constant throughout the year, although expectations regarding the demand for heating fuel in the fourth quarter of 2018 may be small considering the expectations for a warmer than expected increase. Data on demand in the Middle East decreased by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd), mainly due to the decline in demand from Saudi Arabia, which was affected by high efficiency and alternative fuels.

The demand forecast in China has been reduced by 30,000 barrels for the third quarter of 2018.

Estimates of the world increase in demand for oil in 2019. They were reduced by 70,000 barrels a day thanks to the revised demand outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) due to ongoing changes in the global economy.

Demand is expected to grow by 1.29 million barrels a day to 100.08 million barrels a day.

On the supply side, global oil supply increased by 0.44 million barrels per day in October 2018. On average, 99.76 million barrels per day, according to preliminary data, in the context of higher production of OPEC producers (+ 0.13 million barrels per day) and countries outside OPEC + 0.31 million barrels per day).

Throughout 2018, supply forecasts for non-OPEC countries have been adjusted by 0.09 million barrels per day (bpd) and are expected to reach 62.09 million barrels per day.

Expectations for the United States, Russia, Kazakhstan and Thailand increased by 0.24 million barrels per day, representing a decrease of 0.14 million barrels a day in Mexico and Norway, United Kingdom, Brazil and China.

In terms of regional growth, OECD oil supply forecasts increased by 117,000 barrels a day due to higher expectations for OECD countries, while the European countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation Development are declining.

According to forecasts for 2019. The rate of growth of oil supply outside OPEC has been adjusted and increased by 0.12 million barrels per day, and the total supply is to reach 62.09 million barrels per day after an increase of 2.23 million barrels per day.


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