“The numbers tell us that there is a slowdown in the curves, but not a reduction in the number of cases. Let’s say the numbers increase at a slower rate. Important, but not enough. We have to get used to flexible closures, adapted to the trend ofepidemic. Thus in certain territories and for limited periods of time. In this sense, the 21-parameter system is excellent because it adapts to the epidemic trend. “
Professor Ranieri Guerra is the Deputy Director ofWorld Health Organization. Faced with stabilizing the rise of new cases positive and while slowing down hospitalizations, it invites us to maintain stable nerves and rationality. Because the journey to the end of the most painful phase of the pandemic is not over.
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When can we start talking about reducing new cases? Do you need to reassure us that there are fewer and fewer busy beds? Ten days ago they fluctuated between 150 and 200 every 24 hours in intensive care only, instead of this weekend, they were much less (43 yesterday, 10 Saturday and 36 Friday).
“It will take a few more days before a real decline in the new positive cases is achieved. The result at the receptions is promising. But there is also a reduction in what we can define as “social shelters”, there is more attention to whom to hospitalize and more attention to territorial medicine in diagnosing and monitoring the sick, treating them at home. Gravity is usually seen at first impact and then subsides. “The development we are witnessing was expected, as well as, unfortunately, in the number of deaths that will be high in a few days.”
It’s a simplification that scientists do not like, but do you think we will see the top soon?
“Certainly, because we will have the effects of the last Dpcm, with stricter measures and mini-locks in some regions.”
There is an encouraging fact: also in other European countries such as France, Spain and the United Kingdom, where the virus appeared more in September and October than in Italy, with restrictive measures they reduced the impact. The epidemic is not invincible.
“This is now known. Restriction measures to avoid shrinkage. I would like to add: unfortunately. “If each of us had personal discipline regarding precautions such as masks, distance and hand hygiene, there would be no need for prohibitions.”
Waiting for the effect of the vaccines that will not have, even in the best hypotheses, before the spring, should we expect the closure of the “gull”, resolved for short periods and limited territories, every time the epidemic starts again?
“Once again: the alarm system of the established 21 indicators works well, it is robust, it always feeds better than the regions. Based on that, there are closures in phases and in geographical sectors. What is important at this point is not to say, “let’s close everything.” It would not be justified, or even sustainable, all measures must be adapted territorially and for the required period of time. Having this system, perhaps enriching it instead of impoverishing it, helps us move forward and make decisions based on what the evidence for the numbers provides. Both when you close and when you reopen. “By spring, the ‘all free or all closed’ model no longer makes sense.”
In the latest phase of the epidemic, large metropolises have a lower incidence than provinces.
“Large urban areas are subject to stricter restrictions and controls than surrounding areas, where the movement of vehicles and people is less monitored. “We also need to understand how important travel is.”
Why in Asian countries (Southeast Asia and the Far East), not only in China, the virus circulates much less than in Italy? Nations like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand or Singapore that did better than Europe?
“First of all: the virus continues to circulate there, albeit to a much lesser extent. Certainly in those countries there is direct respect of the population to the rules set by the governments, the use of the mask was a habit even before the pandemic, they also have a very different sociality from the European one. And they do better monitoring because, unlike in Europe, they do not have an obsessive respect for privacy even in emergencies. “Right or wrong is different in Europe.”
Which Christmas are you looking forward to?
“In the family, sober and quiet. “I hope it is now understood by all that older family members must be protected.”
Covid Italia, bulletin today 22 November: decline in new infections (28,337) and deaths (562), 15% positive swab
In Italy, 28,337 new cases of Covid were identified in the last 24 hours, more than 6,000 less than yesterday, bringing the total number of people infected since the beginning of the state of emergency to 1,408,868. The increase in casualties also decreased, 562 in one day, while yesterday there were 692, a total of 49,823.
Last Updated: November 23, 00:14
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