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The Golden Ounce, a big winner in the return to risk aversion



In the summer cavern, barbaric relics mark the return of grace. Of the 17% since the beginning of the year, the gold ounce has settled above the $ 1,500 threshold, a level not reached since 2013. Like other safe havens, the price of yellow metal contributes to renewed risk aversion in stock markets. It must be said that amidst trade tensions, the materialization of economic slowdown and the negative yields of certain liabilities, the supporting factors are not absent for the barbaric relic.

For a year, the commercial stand-off between China and the United States has fueled risk aversion. Every day brings a lot of new statements from Donald Trump. If the latest news is quite reassuring, the US president has decided to delay the introduction of an increase in customs duties on imports of Chinese products, the damage being done. Outside the spectrum of protectionism, markets suffer mainly from a lack of visibility about the outcome of the trade conflict. Uncertainty dominates the trend, prompting investors to favor shelters, including gold, which, according to Goldman Sachs, could reach $ 1,600 an ounce by the end of the year.

Slowing down global growth

A collateral victim of the trade war, Germany's economy, whose export-based model has shrunk by 0.1% in the second quarter.

The day before, it was Chinese industrial output, the lowest in 17 years, that issued a warning signal. The latter rose 4.8% year-on-year in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (SNB), a growth lower than the forecasts of economists surveyed by Reuters, which expected a 5.8% increase.

A warning for US bond markets

Another worrying signal is the transition to negative US short-term territory. The yield curve of two and ten years was reversed, which has not happened since 2007. However, it is seen by the yielders as an inversion of the yield curve, as well as the passage of negative territory to the two-year-old American as the forerunner of the recession.

Given renewed risk aversion, recession fears and when bond markets reach stratospheric levels, investors favor safe havens, including gold, which returns $ 617 on its 6th anniversary. an ounce at the time of European closure.

FL (redaction@boursorama.fr)


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