Wang Chao, Xu Chao
Trump signed a temporary spending bill, and the US government will open the door for three weeks until February 15th. But if Congress and Trump fail to reach a further deal within three weeks, the US government may stop again in mid-February.
US Government Officially Closed! After the US Senate and the House of Representatives adopted a Law on Expenditure Costs, Trump officially signed the law, and the US government would open the door for three weeks until February 15th. The main assets did not change much due to the end of the transaction. US stock futures ended trading and the prices of battles did not fluctuate. Affected by an agreement reached in the deal during the week, the three major US stock indexes closed on Friday. But if Congress and Trump fail to reach a further deal within three weeks, the US government may stop again in mid-February.
The House of Representatives voted unanimously to decide to fund more federal agencies by February 15th. Prior to that, the Senate approved a temporary finance bill, which allowed Congress and Trump to negotiate border security issues within three weeks. Since Trump has signed the bill, hundreds of thousands of federal employees can return to work and repay salaries at the outset of a stalemate on December 22.
US President Trump previously said he has a strong alternative, but hopes he will not use it, will sign an agreement that will allow the government to continue working until February 15. In his speech at the White House, Trump said he hopes to sign the deal as soon as possible and as early as Friday.
Prior to that, LaGuardia Airport in New York was temporarily closed due to a lack of air traffic controllers on Friday, which exacerbated flight delays across the United States.
It is worth mentioning that if Congress and Trump fail to reach a further deal within three weeks, the US government may stop again in mid-February.
Once the government is re-opened, the democratic and republican parties will form a conference commission to develop a law on allocation of homeland security. However, if Congress does not reach the border security agreement Trump wants, Trump threatens to re-close the government or declare a national emergency to bypass Congress.
"We have no choice but to build a solid wall or steel barrier. If we do not get fair treatment from the Congress, the government will close on February 15th or use the powers that US law and the constitution gives me to solve. . "
I hope that people can read or hear my speech on the border wall.This is in no way a concession.He cares about millions of people who were seriously injured by the closure of the government. If the contract can not be reached within 21 days, the government will close!
Part of the closure of the US government lasts 35 days.
The impact of government closures is increasing. From the partial shutdown of the government on December 22, around 800,000 federal workers were forced to take vacation or work with arrears. In addition, due to the lack of staff at the airport, this also led to a massive delay in US flights.
The three main stock indices on the US stock market were affected by the day's deal, and S & P closes 0.85%, while Dow closes 0.75%. Nasdaq increased by more than 1.29%.
UBS estimates show that the cost of closing the US government is unbelievable – at least $ 1 billion a day.
Brian Rose, senior economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, estimates that the economic losses caused by the closure of the US government at this stage are $ 1 billion / day. At the same time, if the US economic growth in the first quarter is zero or negative (the US government has accepted this opportunity this week), even if the government closes, economic growth in the second quarter will not grow dramatically, partly because it can it's hard to recruit new employees. Rose pointed out:
The calculation of the direct impact of the closure of the government – the actual loss of government spending is purely mechanical: in terms of total lost working hours, the government cuts down the economy by 0.1% every two weeks. But with regard to the indirect impact, the reaction of consumers and businesses is difficult to measure. The problem now is: with the impact of various news items, such as the stock market trend and the latest news from Washington,How consumer confidence will change and how this change will affect demand, if any.
Rose's views have also been approved by Bank of America economist Joseph S. Song, who claimsThe reaction of consumers and businesses is becoming a key issue.
According to recent data collected by the Bank of America, consumer confidence has deteriorated significantly since early December, when government closures violated financial markets and economic activity. According to a consumer survey in the bank, although most respondents still feel good about the economy, recent trends show consumer concerns about the economy are intensifying.
More precisely, the question of how the economic situation is compared with a year ago,34% of the respondents indicated that the economic situation worsened,This is the highest level since the Bank of America began to raise this issue in April.
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