Picture source: photographed network
The weather is flying and passing in 2018.
Looking back in 2018, the stock market was in decline, and the Compact Compute in Shanghai last year fell to second place in A-share history. The data show that the Shanghai Composite Index in 2008 dropped by 65.39% year-on-year, which was the first year of the decline in the stock market A, and in 2018, Shanghai Composite Index fell in second place in a drop with a decline of 24, 59%. In addition, from the point of view of the global stock indexes, the decline in the Shanghai market index and the Shenzhen Component Index in 2018 are ranked at the forefront of the global stock index.
In 2018, A-shares appeared many long-standing creatures, and shares of Zhonghong and other "black swan", as well as the pharmaceutical sector declined, some white horses returned to their original form, well-known losses in private equity, the US stock index also entered the bear signs … …
It seems that the risk is greater, but the volcano (WeChat Public Number: huoshan5188) is thinking of a previous cow prophecy: there are only three possibilities for wealth in life, and this will appear once in 2019! The first chance in life was in 2008, the second was in 2019, and last was around 2030.
2019 arrived, is it a great opportunity to come?
Attention should be paid to the contraction of the Fed, the US reserves, or the influence of bears
Judging by the news of the New Year's holiday, Hong Kong shares and US stocks are red. The Han Seng Index rose 1.34 percent on Monday, and the Dow Jones index grew 1.15 percent overnight.
An important fact is that the National Bureau of Statistics released data yesterday. In December 2018, China's Supply Chain Management Index (PPI) was 49.4%, which is 0.6 percentage points from November 2018, below the critical point and the production boom. The degree is weakened.
It is worth noting that the US stock index has signs of walking on bears. In the Dow Jones Index, take into account the Dow Jones Index. Currently, the stock index is executed under the double top neckline, and the neckline is close to 23,500. If the neckline can not be broken, the Dow can enter the bear market.
Historically, the US stock market collapsed in 2000, and the financial crisis in 2008 had a greater impact on the global market. Most of the global stock indices were hit by the fall of US stocks.
The following is a comparison of the Nasdaq index, the S & P 500 index and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. It can be seen that the synchronization of fluctuations is greater.
For the aforementioned two US stock index drops, let's look at the performance of A-shares in the same period. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a historic peak of 2245 points in 2001. It can be noted that the stock index fell later than the US stock index. Since the fall in 2008, the index of the Shanghai index and the S & P 500 index have recorded the historical peak in October 2007, but the subsequent decline rate was inconsistent. By August 2008, the S & P 500 index fell by 17%. In the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 60%. Although the US stock index began to fall sharply and the subprime crisis was at its peak, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a historic bottom against the US stock index.
Judging from the current stock A and US stocks, the Shanghai Index Index fell by about 50% from 5178, while the S & P 500 fell 15% from a height of 2940 points. Some analysts believe that if the US actions go off, stocks may be affected, but Shares should not be overly concerned.
In addition, analysts believe that in 2019, we should pay attention to the impact of the Fed's contraction on the global economy. The Fed began the contraction process in October 2017. The data show that on October 18, 2017, the Federal Reserve's balance amounted to $ 4.47 billion, and from October 24, 2018 to $ 4.173 trillion. Compared to the increase in interest rates, capital expenditures will increase and the lending activity will be limited, the reduction is equal to the direct withdrawal of the base currency from the market, which has a greater impact on the liquidity. The US dollar is called the "general gate" of global liquidity. Historically, the "shortage of the dollar" and global liquidity fluctuations often become direct incentives for the turmoil in the financial markets. In the early period, the Fed gave the expectation that the pace of interest rate rises may slow, while the decline continues in a "quiet" way. Market parties need to do a better job than the "dollar deficit" and the possible negative effects. Ready.
The Science and Technology Board is the main event in 2019. Private equity believes this is suitable for growing, developing and investing in strategically new markets, providing multiple levels of outbound roads. The unfortunate factor is that the short-term will divert the assets from the stock market of A, which does not contribute to the valuation of some so-called. "technical, innovative" stock market A, which will have a certain short-term impact on A-shares.
Zhou Jintao, "cycle cycle", said that it should not be considered that the accumulation of wealth of all has more skills, the accumulation of wealth is entirely from the time of the movement of the economic cycle to give you an opportunity; 2019 is the year of the Kanbo cycle, 60 years The worst phase of the year, so be sure to control the risks from 2018 and 2019. The first is to preserve value, the second guarantees liquidity, there are only three life opportunities in life, and it will appear once in 2019! The first chance in life was in 2008, the second was in 2019, and last was around 2030.
The largest people in cattle look at investment opportunities in 2019
To carry out stock market A in 2018, Vulcan Jun (WeChat Public Number: huoshan5188) made some statistics. Following the elimination of the new shares listed in 2018 and the long-term suspension of shares, among 3,458 shares, the number of shares fell by 3,238. There were 2,447 shares that fell more than the Shanghai Composite Index (the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 24.59% in 2018), and only 220 stocks surged.
Of those stocks that are stronger than the Shanghai Index, there are gold Shandong, gold Zhongjin in the gold sector, Guangxun technology in the 5G sector, Fiberhome communications, etc., Zhifei biology, Tiantan biology, etc. in the medical sector, the military sector In the high German infrared, aircraft.
For the gold sector, the late cow Zhou Jintao believes in August 2016 that the real holding rate of gold tends to increase during the recession and depression of Kangbo, reaching a high point during the recession, and the tendency during recovery and boom period. Down. Starting from a long-term recession, golden assets will enter a protracted bull market and receive a substantial surplus of return to the super market of 5-10 years of depression.
Volcano Jun (WeChat Public Number: huoshan5188) showed that besides the gold reserves on the secondary market, there are gold funds ETF. In the fourth quarter of 2018, investors actively applied for gold ETF funds. Such as E Gold Fund ETF (159934), Juan Gold ETF (518880), Boss Gold ETF (159937), Cathay Gold ETF (518800).
On the market in 2018, Vulkan Jun revealed that in case of a number of well-known losses in private capital, the performance of the "Dye" of "Ljubin" was remarkable. Wind statistics show that Hulu Bean manages a number of products, from December 21, 2018, the total return from 2018 is over 90%. Among them, group 1 reported a return of 110.69% from 2018. Nuggets 5 reported a return of 110.45% since 2018.
In mid-December 2018, Hu Lubin believed that investing is very difficult. Many of the world's businesses are not stable. If we buy these businesses with a lower P / E ratio, our requirements for this can be reduced. But most of the time, the transactional cost of a business is not cheap. Therefore, we hope that the business we buy will be stable and growing, which is a bigger challenge for our stock market selection. It also mentioned that if everyone sees an investment opportunity, there will be no chance. For example, the performance of some of the leading companies in the industry is very stable. The competitive landscape in the industry is very good, with an annual growth rate of 10% to 20%, but the price of the transaction is 40 times the cost of revenue, so that the return of such a business will be very low.
According to Hu Ljubin's view, a good business model covers the following six aspects: first, the company's operations occupy less variable assets, second, the long-term industry demand is basically stable, third, dominant companies compared to the other Fourth, the expansion of favorable companies in the industry is relatively easy and is not subject to certain uncontrolled factors. Fifth, the industry is prone to a strong and strong situation, the sixth, alternative technology There are fewer alternative business models.
According to Dae Investment's view, the total value of A's shares fell much more than the previous one, but it is still difficult to call it "wholly gold." Investment opportunities are mainly distributed in production and branded consumer goods. Products provided by these companies are stable in demand, the industry has a good competitive landscape, and the management team is excellent. It is expected to generate a very stable cash flow for shareholders over a relatively long period of time.
In addition, in analyzes of the analysis of the 2018 renalisation, Vulcan Jun revealed that some brands have strong stock prices, such as Hengshun Vinegar Industry, Zhongshun Jierou and so on.
If you need to reprint it, please contact the newspaper "Daily Economic Newspapers".
It is strictly forbidden to print or mirror without the permission of the newspaper Daily Economic Newspapers.
Cooperation for copyright and cooperation on the website phone: 021-60900099 turn 688
Read phone line: 4008890008