Source: Journal of Securities in China
In response to the next phase of the bond market, the manager of the proposed CITIC Prudential fund, Xia Mei, said that at least until the end of the second quarter of next year, the bond market will continue to maintain the trend of "slow cow".
Jan Xiamei believes that the continued downward pressure on macroeconomics provides the basis for the continuation of the bond market. At the same time, is it from the perspective of a "stable economy" or a downward pressure on social growth, the expectation of extending "broad credit" is obvious. Warming, this will significantly benefit from investing in the bond market.
Yan Xiamei said that after the release of data in the third quarter, China's economic growth downward pressure increased, which further reduced the risk appetite of the assets, resulting in more funds for the increase in bonds, resulting in a rapid decline in lending bonds yields .
Xia Meimei further noted that under the pressure of the economic crisis, the central bank will continue to maintain a relatively loose monetary environment, which is obviously convenient for the continued development of the bond market. However, Xia Mei also noted that due to the recent rapid decline in yields, unless the extreme market conditions are not forced to "liberate water," the yield curve on the bond market will gradually catch up and reduce the negative space.
"If you're thinking of the market in the next six months as a big stage, you can split it into three or four small phases. The first small phase of interest bonds ended up," Xia Ximei said, "but in the short run." While shortfalls in yields are narrowing, there are still opportunities for medium and long-term yields, narrowing of spread spreads and narrowing of credit spreads, and there are hopes for investors to contribute to the next few phases. "
It is worth mentioning that CITIC Prudential Jingtai Debt, which is currently being issued and managed by Xia Mei, is a medium and high quality credit connection. As a pure debt fund, the CITIC Prudential Jingtai-based debt strategy is based on: medium and high quality credit bonds as the best position and appropriate allocation of some long-term interest bonds with good liquidity and high resilience, which is expected to benefit from this round of stock market of bonds. The rate curve gradually gets higher profits during the leveling process.
Yan Xiamei said that in practice, the three-way strategy of the runtime strategy, brings strategy and hedging strategy will be used to operate on a debt base. Regarding the duration strategy, the overall portfolio of the fund will take about 3 years and can attack and retreat. Among them, the credit bond has a short duration and is mainly defensive, while the bond interest rate is long and is mainly based on a misdemeanor. If there is a short-term turnaround on the market, retraction can be controlled by reducing the interest rate debt, which reduces the duration and impact. In terms of trade strategy, the cost of capital has a high probability of maintaining a low position, and the combination maintains a high leverage, which fully utilizes the carry-on strategy to increase the combined income. Regarding the hedging strategy, if the market has a long-term turnaround, it can also protect the risk through government bond futures, improve portfolio security, and maximize revenue from the portfolio.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)