Original Title: Smart Money Buys Drunkenness Week A-Shares: How Will the Market Follow Shanghai Strengths and Weaknesses? Source: Financial Association
The A stock market started this week with a slight slow growth and the model of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen appeared.
In terms of indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index came out of three consecutive positives with a weekly increase of 2.04%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were weaker. The ChiNext Index fell more than 1% this week. On the disc, the A-shares once again organized the market for “drinking” and “driving”. Cars, alcohol, non-ferrous metals, coal and deliveries were active, while financial stocks were significantly weaker. This week, non-ferrous metals, mining, the military, steel, banking and other low-value stocks climbed to the top, while pharmaceuticals, electronics and computers performed poorly.
From a capital point of view, in relation to fixed capital from outside, the largest shares of large net capital purchases this week are mainly biased towards the “large financial” sector. Major financial stocks such as Ping An, Industrial Bank and Poly Real Estate are the advantage of the largest funds. Products with large net outflows of fixed assets are mainly concentrated in the consumer electronics sector. Among them, Luxshare Precision and GoerTek are sold by major funds.
The strong Shanghai and weak assets of Shenzhen to the north buy 3 weeks
It is worth noting that the accumulated net purchases of funds from the North Link this week were 5.511 billion yuan, which was the third consecutive week of net purchases. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Connect had net purchases of 8.44 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Connect had net sales of 2.929 billion yuan, in line with the Shanghai strong and weak Shenzhen market performance. The low valuation cycle, which has been consistently active this week, is a sector with a relatively low distribution rate in the north. Therefore, the funds seem to be less enthusiastic in the current market, and the atmosphere of waiting and watching is relatively strong.
In terms of individual shares, in the past 7 trading days, the top ten net purchases of assets directed north were Longji, Ping An, Industrial Bank, BOE A, China Fried, Hang Seng Electronics, Pharmaceuticals Hengrui, Gri Electric, Weichau , WuXi AppTec and others.
Among the net shares sold, the top ten were Kwaichou Mutai, Hickquision, Luxhar Precision, Oriental Fortune, Huayu Automobiles, Yange, Mindrej Medical, Midea Group, KATL and the China Bank of Commerce.
Institutional research and assessment: Medium-term market growth will continue to have a reversal effect at the end of the year
In terms of market prospects, Hesseng strategist Wang Yang listed A shares and found that in better-yielding years such as 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2019, institutions tend to have a guaranteed return at the end of the year. In other words, when the cumulative rate of return from January to October is relatively high, there will be some “reversal effect” in the structural rotation in November and December.Compared to vaccines and credit events, in the context of higher yields this year, the demand for guaranteed returns from institutions approaching the end of the year may be a key reason for recent adjustments.
From a technical point of view, Dongfang Securities Xue Jun, Yiangyang Chenlong and others analyzed that the daily K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index jumped above the cloud and baseline this week, and the daily cloud was flat. The weekly K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index remained above the baseline and the conversion line. The Shanghai Composite 50 mark and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300-day K-lines gradually moved upwards, and the weekly K-lines fluctuated upwards in an upward triangle. He believes that the market growth will continue from the beginning of November, and the bottom is gradually increasing.
Index SSE 50 Weekly K line
Yuekai Securities Chen Menji pointed out that market transactions have declined significantly this week and the hotspots have shifted rapidly, indicating that the market is still dominated by stock games and the readiness of over-the-counter funds to enter the market is insufficient. Some institutions are expected to make a profit in advance and lock in profits. Shocks will still dominate in the short run.The short-term, low-grade cyclical stocks represented by non-ferrous metals, chemicals and finance are still expected to be active again and again under the logic of economic recovery. In the medium and long term, the focus is on the high performance growth represented by new energy vehicles and may continue into next year.