Tuesday , August 3 2021

Chilean economy closes 2018: more growth and investments, but slow reaction to the labor market | Economy

2018 is resolved with several positive economic figures, such as higher growth or growth in investment and productivity. But also with several points of debit, which, according to analysts, are embedded in an overestimated expectation, such as the slow reaction in the labor market.

The government, for its part, stressed through a communication campaign that set the economy "on track" in 2018.

In terms of growth, the Central Bank estimates that this year will be closed by expanding the gross domestic product by 4%, although there are estimates for the private world that are talking about 3.8% due to the slowdown in recent months.

However, in each scenario, the rate is higher than the average of the last four years, which is 1.7%.

Another one of the figures separated by analysts and the executive is the investment, which will close with an increase of 5.5% on the issuing entity, while La Moneda is betting that it will be higher than 6%.

The truth is that the numbers are very good, I do not care much about the defense that happened in 2018, because the numbers are defended

– Guillermo Ramirez, UDI

Euroamérica economist Luis Felipe Alarcón said the investment pushed the economy this 2018 year.

"The positive growth of the investment, after a rather long contraction period, has been added to the other components of the local economy, which in the end has created greater growth, which is considerably stronger than what we have seen in the past four or five years," he said.

Labor market

The economist of Royas y Asociados, Patricio Rojas, agreed with this diagnosis. However, he added that in 2018 he left open issues as the fastest reaction in the labor market.

"Given the projections that were at the beginning of the year, the economy ended about half a pace more. The element that is a little looser is everything related to consumption, which is closely related to the labor market, the creation of employment is rather modest over 2018, coupled with a slowdown in wages, has created an effect on expectations, "he said.

According to figures from the National Institute of Statistics, unemployment this year is over 7%, although the Central Bank has warned of underestimating the creation of jobs in recent years.

José Carvajal | UN agency
José Carvajal | UN agency

The prisons of companies such as Albano, Maersk, Iansa, Paste Suazo, among others, have raised concerns, despite the fact that the government emphasizes that the rate of creating private paid jobs is higher.

Different visions

Christian Democrat Jorge Pizarro, for the Senate Financial Committee of the House of Lords, figures for this year are worthy of concern.

"There is less growth than what was promised to the country. The last two Imacec are worrying. The unemployment issue would say it is the most delicate, because the government really did not have any incentive policies for engaging people," he complained.

On the other hand, for the member of the Finance House of the House of Commons, the deputy of Udinese, Guillermo Ramirez, the figures for 2018 are defended.

"We are growing more than we had to grow; the investment has finally stopped being negative, it has improved employment by contract, protected employment. The truth is that the numbers are very good, I do not care much about what happened in 2018, because the figures defend themselves, "he said.

Despite the uncertainty caused by the trade war, exports of goods and services would change by 4.8% in 2018, according to the Central Bank.

An international scenario that affected copper, which was quoted on average below $ 3 per kilogram this year, while Santiago Stock Exchange recorded the lowest level since 2013, with the IPSA dropping 8.3%.

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