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Will the sales of Tesla be reduced in 2019 with a loss of tax credit and backlog?



Cars

Posted on December 23, 2018 |
by Michael Barnard

December 23, 2018 from Michael Barnard


There are two things that provided some wind under Tesla Wings in 2018, which change in 2019: tax credits and pre-orders. Will the reduction of federal tax credits in 2019 reduce Tesla sales? Will the remaining part of the pre-order be filled and the demand dried? This is not what the evidence suggests.

In the United States, the Tesla Model 3 can be reduced from the 5th or 6th best-selling car to be only in the top 10, but there is little evidence that there is a significant global lack of demand. Both the backlog and other factors point to a very strong 2019 in the United States and elsewhere.

Pre-orders

Let's talk about the delayed minutes. Per Bloomberg, Tesla will hit the total production of about 150,000 model 3 in 2018. However, pre-orders were around 455,000 after giving up and confirmed it was over 400,000 earlier this year by Tesla.

Tesla will have pre-orders for around 305,000 model 3-on-the-globe to meet in 2019.

About 50% of pre-orders were probably in the United States. Most deliveries in 2018 were in the United States. Assuming 227,000 US pre-orders and 120,000 US deliveries, it leaves 107,000 US pre-orders and 198,000 pre-orders from outside the US.

Global demand

About 200,000 pre-orders are still pending on the goal of the rest of the world, which does not receive the federal tax credit in the United States. That's almost twice as much as US Undertakings. The Tesla Model 3 will still be widely sold globally, where there is a very high demand and little tax credit changes to prevent sales.

Word search word

One thing many Tesla critics do not like or dislike is that people who drive Tesla are talking a lot about them, giving other people a lot of testing, and putting lots of videos and testimonials on social media. The number of senior people in the automotive industry who are driving after a test is large, and with so many models of the Tesla Model 3s on the road, more people get a test drive and give their cars to friends and acquaintances personally and through social media .

Tesla spends a fraction of what other companies do for advertising. Most cars equivalent to the Tesla Model 3 have a price of $ 2,500-3,500 for advertising as part of their basic cost. In 2016, Tesla spent $ 6 a car. Each Tesla, who appeared in a television show or film, was not a product placement, but a director's decision to show the vehicle for free. It's not true for BMW, Audi and the like, who spend a ton of money for placing products and advertising.

Part of the reason why Tesla does not have to display ads is that it sold many cars early for people with excellent talent, equipment and skills that do it for free. Some advertisements for Tesla have been improved by 90% of commercial ads made professionally.

Sales of more Teslas not only fill the demand – but creates demand. That's true of the Tesla model S and it's just more true now. There are still people who do not know what Tesla is, but they will soon emerge.

And all Tesla should do is create a traditional advertising and social media and the press will erupt to spread globally. It will cost much less than $ 2,500 per car. Tesla can increase the advertising budget in order to create demand and spend much less than its competitors.

Tax Credit Reduce

The reduction of the tax credit is only a job in the United States and only a federal loan. And that's a decrease from 7,500 to 3,750 dollars for the first six months of 2019, and dropped to 1,875 dollars for the last six months of 2019.

Tesla slowly introduces the Tesla Model 3s with a lower price. The average price for configured sales was initially over $ 50,000. The current base price is $ 45,000. The target price for 2019 is $ 35,000 and is expected to be available in the first six months of 2019.

That means that many people with pre-orders will still receive a tax credit of Tesla Model 3 to 2019, and they will end up being able to set aside the same amount of money or lower than the people who bought it in 2018.

And that does not count the jurisdictions like California, which is considering doubling the tax credit.

Are tax credit changes affecting sales? Yes, the initial purchase price is still a ticketing problem despite the lower operating costs. But cuts are telegrammed and balanced by price cuts. There are likely to be several more pre-orders to quit, but many people on the list are people who pay great attention to the status of the tax credit and have made one or another way of thinking.

Risks to all US federal tax returns

While Tesla is at the front line to the turning point of 200,000 electric cars sold in the US. The GM is close behind and may be six months, lagging behind Tesla in reducing loans for its Bolt and other electrified models. Others are behind, so they will expect to benefit for years.

But Trump and his administration have clearly signaled that they are following the desire of the fossil fuel industry to exclude all tax returns for the EW. It can happen in 2020.

Meanwhile, GM, Tesla and Nissan lobby hard to lift the lid of 200,000, as well as some members of the Congress.

Who will win? It's hard to say, but the chances Trump and the crew to choose to undermine EVS is higher than the alternative, especially now that GM closed American plants and made Trump look even more to the idiot of Harley Davidson.

All American citizens who want Tesla and a tax credit are likely to be bought in 2019. 107,000 pre-orders are just a little smaller than Tesla, shipped in the US in 2018. They tend to hit 10,000 models 3s per week in 2019. They are already over 6,000 a week. Assuming that they average 8000 per week by 2018, it's over 400,000 cars.

Comparison with other sellers

Tesla already sells more cars globally than Porsche or Jaguar. In 2019, it can surpass Volvo. Tesla is the # 4, # 5 or # 6 best-selling car (from any class) in the US in Q4 2018.

The models of the Tesla Model 3 already notice many positive comparisons with the BMW M3 and M5 models, and the BMW M3 can no longer be sold in the EU, as BMW could not respect the EU's emissions. The company is trying to turn to the M4, but it has a lower price at a higher price.

People continue to make a mistake in thinking that Tesla is competing only with electrical offers from other manufacturers. No, it's outcompeting cars of other manufacturers of internal combustion in each category in which it is.

The next model creates buzz and demand

The Tesla Model Y small crossover SUV, based on the Tesla Model 3 model, aims to launch in March 2019. Tesla will open the pre-order book at that time, with the aim of producing in 2020.

Sales of sedan are declining in the United States except in Tesla. Crossover and SUV sales are climbing. Tesla is a counter-trend with its shape factor and in 2019 will be on the trend. Demand will be higher for Y than for model 3, so all pre-buzz buzz will appear.

Tesla is the only automotive company that is continually getting massive money orders for upcoming models. You have to go back to Mercedes in the 1980s to find a vehicle with more than a fraction of the previously built demand.

And then it's Tesla Pickup, another category that the US loves, and the rest of the world scratches their heads. Moss recently proposed an expedited timeline for this by working with existing Daimler components.

Net-net

No, Tesla will not see his sales fall in 2019. On the contrary, the contrary. It is very easy to see that demand will only increase in the US and globally by 2019.


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Tags: Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Tax Credit, US Tax Credit, US Tax Credit, USA


for the author

Michael Barnard is the chief strategist at TFIE Strategy Inc. It works with startups, existing businesses, and investors to identify opportunities for significant bottom line growth and cost recovery in our fast-moving world. He is the editor of "The Future is Electric", an intermediate edition. He regularly publishes analyzes of low-carbon technology and website policy, including Newsweek, Shield, Forbes, Huffington Post, Quartz, Pure Tech and Recovery Economics, and his work is regularly included in textbooks. Third-party articles on his analyzes and interviews have been published on dozens of news websites globally and have reached # 1 in Reddit Science. Much of his work comes from Quora.com, where Mike is a major writer annually since 2012. It is available for consulting engagements, engagement talks and board positions.




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