Posted on December 31, 2018 |
by Paul Fus
December 31, 2018 from Paul Fos
A brief generic answer to the question in the title is "Yes". I bought my model 3 months ago and I love it. You can read more about this in the archives of my author. But there are other things that need to be considered, and people have different factors to consider. So read about the nuance and some thoughts about Tesla.
Every week, it seems we thought Tesla would run out of model 3 vehicles that week. But the company kept its production and apparently worked through its backlog orders a few weeks ago. People who still have reservations fall into three categories:
- They are waiting for a cheaper car (a car of 35,000 dollars) or for leasing to be offered on the current model 3s.
- They are part of a world where you can not get Model 3. This is everywhere except in the United States and Canada.
- They have changed or did not show up something they can not buy a car right now.
So although Tesla still receives several thousand new orders each week from new people who discover the model 3, it's not enough to sell the car, although the US federal tax credit has dropped in half for Tesla's buyers for 2 days focusing on the mind of people.
Availability of cars
Although I expected Tesla to sell his inventory this week, it seems that the availability is slightly modified by what I found last week. Local sales offices tell me that Tesla has a group of cars ready for the same day ordering and shipping, as long as I can be a little flexible for the opportunities I want.
I checked with Tesla in Tampa, St. Louis and Denver. Cars are sold fast but not fast enough to be sold. Generally speaking, I have posted 2 or 3 links for a friend who I help to decide on who to buy, and when checking the links a few days later, they are usually dead (which I think means the car is sold). When I call the dealer and ask for more connections, I will find 2 or 3 cars that meet the specifications I am looking for.
What I guess is that they have either a large inventory in which they operate or can be recovered at least as quickly as they are sold. After the tax credit will be reduced on Tuesday, although I know that they will start to separate much of the production in Europe and China, they will not want sales to fall too much into the United States, so I think it means they will pull one or more "levers for demand ".
Demand for bearings
In October, we published a great article about all the ways that Tesla could increase demand for its cars. Some of these levers have already been extracted, such as geographical expansion and the new Mid Range battery pack. Others, such as harmonization of tax credits, free charge for long periods and free wall chargers, but will be reduced to gross margins at a time when they will be determined to remain profitable.
Many in the United States will be delighted to see the standard battery now (and they've done a good job of keeping the Mid Range battery up to release), but the website still says the standard battery is 4 to 6 months away. Please note that 4 months ago the site is listed 6 to 9 months away, so I think it is unlikely to open a Standard Range battery this week. In addition, it's only a month since Elon Mash sent an email to all employees, saying he would cost $ 38,000 to build a $ 35,000 car and ask those employees to help find ways to cut pennies from each of 10,000 pieces and processes needed to put the Model 3 together.
My pledge is that leasing and / or subscriptions are the best way for Tesla to reduce the total monthly price of new owners without taking the margin into some of the other options. Also, it's exactly 7 months after Elon predicted that we will have a lease for 6 to 9 months. His reason for not offering it then was the cash flow (which was quite negative 6 months ago). The cash flow has been greatly improved now, so it should not be a bigger issue anymore.
So, what is the answer to the question I asked in the title of this article? Should you buy now or should you wait to see what Tesla will announce in 2019?
I can not tell you that, of course. For the answer, you need to look inside yourself.
If you're a risk (I am) and / or I'm not happy with the current elections (I think the current elections are great), waiting makes sense. I do not know what the Tesla lever will pull, but I'm sure they will do something to sweeten the deal after the tax credit will be reduced on January 1st. My guess is that Tesla will either offer a lease or find a way to reduce the price several thousand dollars to a low $ 40,000.
On the other hand, if you appreciate safety and surprises from hatred, and you are satisfied with the available cars now, there is no reason not to lock up to a large extent and to get a bigger tax credit!
You can use my Tesla reference link to get up to 9 months free super charge (6 months if you have a test vehicle with Tesla) on model S, model X or model 3. Here's the code: https: // ts. la / paul92237