New Democrats' defeat in Alberta's provincial election last night marked the end of a remarkable chapter in the province's politics – the first NRP Alps government.
The arrival of a new provincial conservative government, meanwhile, could mark the beginning of a new chapter in federal politics.
Prime Minister Jason Kenney has left behind a decade-long stop in federal politics to help create the United Conservative Party and bring it to power. Veterans' observers say his high national profile and strong ties with provincial and federal conservatives will ensure that he remains an influential player on the national political scene.
Political analyst at Mount Royal, Duan Brother, said Albertus saw significant signs during a close-knit campaign between the UCP and the federal party – Kenny shares a campaign in a snowstorm with federal Conservative leader Andrew Shir, Kenny in Calgary with Lauren Harper, the wife of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and the former prime minister are clinging to their weight behind his former social media minister.
All this points to Kenny's significant influence in the wider conservative family, Brother said. The intense interest of national media for the Alberta elections (certainly more intense than it was in 2015) predicts "the tremendous implications for the rest of the country" of the UCP victory, he added.
So, what will the returning blue power team in Alberta mean for exercising power in Ottawa? Here are five ways elections last night can help form a federal policy.
Kenny says Alberta is "open to business" after the victory of UCP:
Another province, another federal carbon replacement
Kenny says the first bill his new government will introduce will be "abolishing carbon taxes." After Prime Minister Kenny will try to eliminate the cost of carbon in the province at $ 30 / tonne, Ottawa will have to respond by imposing a federal tax pollution stake in Alberta, as they did with Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and New Brunswick
In an e-mail to CBC News, on Environment and Climate Change Canada, said that if a province changes its carbon price system, the federal government's first response will be to review the changes before deciding whether to impose their own federal price .
Marilyn Levi, Canada's spokeswoman for environment and climate change, did not say how quickly the federal government would move to make changes. "The Canadian government will move as soon as possible in order to minimize the gap in coverage," she said.
In fact, Alberta's drivers will still enjoy a little break for the carbon tax after removing the provincial fee. If Alberta's alternative fee is completely canceled, residents will end up paying a federal replacement order – $ 20 per tonne by 2020, $ 10 less than the current price.
The fiscal relationship
Kenny explained a number of ideas that could influence how money moves between Ottawa and Alberta.
In the UCP campaign platform, the party promises to pledge to reduce federal income taxes for Albertans equal to the amount federal government transfers to Alberta through Canada's healthcare transfer and social transfer to Canada. The province will increase tax rates for the same amount; the party has promised that Albertans will not pay more, but the provincial government will have more control over how tax revenues are spent in Alberta.
Kennedy vowed to fight "special interests funded by foreign countries", such as the David Suzuki Foundation, which he accused of leading a "campaign of economic sabotage" against Alberta.
"Your days of impatience have been pushed around Albertans, we have just finished. We are patient and fair-minded to the Albertians, but we have enough of your libel campaign and double standards," he told the crowd.
"With these elections we begin to stop for ourselves, for our jobs and for our future. Today, we, the Albertians, are starting to fight back. From this day forward, whenever you lie about how we produce energy, we will tell the truth firmly and we will use all the means at your disposal to hold you accountable. "
Kenny criticizes Ottawa's work on pipelines:
Kenny has vowed to put pressure on Ottawa for reforming the employment insurance program to better help the Albertians who lost their jobs during the downturn in the province's energy sector.
Finally, there are the most provocative fiscal promises of the UCP: a referendum on the equalization payment – federal funds are redistributed in the provinces to help measure the quality of government services at the national level – to give the provincial bargaining chip when pressing Ottawa to approve more pipelines .
See you at court, Ottawa
Alberta and Ottawa would soon be able to spend a lot of time talking through their lawyers.
Kenny has promised a constitutional challenge to Bill C-69, a federal legislature that will change the way energy projects will be reviewed and approved.
He also said he would instruct his new attorney general to begin an official litigation for a federal tax on carbon if he was imposed in Alberta.
As part of UCP's pressure against environmental groups that are putting pressure on Alberta's energy sector, its electoral platform said it would challenge the charity status of these organizations to the Canada Revenue Agency and ask the Federal Court to complete its charity status, if necessary.
Kenny also pledged $ 10 million in litigation "to support the first nations to protect their rights to be consulted on major energy projects."
Ready for battle
Policies are one thing, but the tone that the new government sets up can go a long way in determining how it faces neighbors and other levels of government. Kenny's position, said the McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland, expects more confrontations and strife on the federal-provincial scene.
"Jason Kenny has a much more controversial relationship with intergovernmental relations," said Belland, who leads the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. "He is very strong and opposed to Trudo's government."
See Kenny full winner speech:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a statement immediately after the election, congratulating Kenny.
"The Albertians chose to choose a majority government headed by the United Conservative Party," it says. "I look forward to working with the provincial government to create good middle-class jobs, build infrastructure and develop businesses and industries at the heart of Alberta's prosperity, so the province can remain competitive in our changing economy."
"Together, we will look at issues of relevance to the Albertians and all Canadians, including the support of canola producers and taking decisive action on climate change, while our natural resources will be sold on the market."
Belend said he expects heated rhetoric from Edmonton, anchored with Western alienation, regionalism and nationalism.
And while no one could describe Kenny as an ideological cousin in Quebec sovereignty"Belen said, he borrowed some tactics from the secessionist and nationalist movements of Quebec.
"It is an approach based on conflicts in politics, where you solve the problem as a strong conflict between your province and the federal government," he said. "You have to defend people from your province against the central government, against other provinces and the rest of the country."
Relief for federal new Democrats?
It seems to be counterintuitive, but Belend said he believes that Kenya's loss – and the loss of Alberto NP's Rachel Neilly – will actually help the federal NDP. "For some NPPs outside Alberta, this can be a source of relief," he said.
Notley and NDP federal leader Dzhegyet Singh are not looking at a controversial issue on pipelines – especially on the expansion of the Trans-Mountain pipeline, where Notley has tightened up his government and opposes Singh. Notley's move could eliminate that ideological discord within the NDP's movement, Belen said.
Brother disagrees: He said he believed Noethe would go anywhere and would still be a long pain in the side of the federal NDP.
"There are huge clashes between NRP Alberta and the federal NDP," Brother said. "After Notley does not happen, it really will not happen to them."