There is still a lot of uncertainty about the development of the situation and the health of the coronavirus survivors, the professor admitted.
The latter and her colleagues have established several scenarios based on the mortality figures recorded in 2020 and those relating to the new coronavirus. Currently, 101,377 deaths from all causes are counted in Belgium this year (up to 44 weeks) and about 15,522 are attributed to Covid-19.
In the most optimistic scenario (C0), the number of deaths in the second half of 2020 is the same as the rate in 2019. While in the worst case scenario (C3), the number of deaths in the second half of the year is equal to that recorded during the first half, two intermediate options are considered. In scenario C1, the mortality of the second wave is equivalent to 50% of that of the first, in scenario C2, it is 75%.
According to IABE 2020 data calibrated to European data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and Eurostat for the period 1988-2018 and the Belgian Statbel data for 2019, boys have a life expectancy of 79.76 years 83.78 girls. 65-year-old men have a life expectancy of 18.80 years versus 21.70 for women of the same age.
But when scenarios darken, life expectancy falls. Thus, in the worst case (S3), newborns have a life expectancy of 78.77 years for boys and 83.17 for girls. 65-year-old men have a life expectancy of 17.61 years, almost three times less than women of the same age, according to IABE projections. The institute reminds us to deal with them carefully, due to the many uncertainties. More research is needed to assess the long-term impact of Covid-19 on mortality, he concludes.