(New York). Fear is a bad counselor. In this simple idea one can sum up what are the most optimistic analysts Wall Street are coming when they look at the hectic cardiogram of the dollar in Argentina and the escalation of the country's risk in the last 48 hours. Neither the investors nor the government should act in panic, they say, because they are very likely to make mistakes. The price control program is an example. "It does not work and sends a signal of despair", confirmed the booking expert.
This idea is complemented by another, which also recommends calm in the middle of the storm: you must have patience. That is to say, the Argentine economy is beginning to emit positive signals despite the great electoral uncertainty, and the best at this moment is to allow conception of this dynamics. Agreement with the International Monetary Fund, they say the same experts and strategic investment funds, gives its first results and the conditions are created so that the competitiveness that today offers underestimated currency will influence sooner or later in the real economy.
From that point of view, the market shakes reflect over-performance that may be unfounded. "Market movements in recent days were extreme, we recommend that our customers stay calm," he said. Infobae Alejo Czerwonko, a UBS strategist for Latin America. He does not deny that election insecurity makes investors nervous and that inflation remains high. But it relativizes the likelihood of a bad mood that moves to the polls.
"There are still six months ahead of the election, and while the script remains open and binary, we keep our prediction of continuity"he said. The calculation is based on several reasons, including that the external context will continue to support the current government, that there should be a marginal improvement in the macroeconomic indicators and that Christina Kirchner "seems to have failed to profit substantially from the fall of popular support for Makri." June will be the key month when all applications are defined.
Constantly also of cautious optimism, another analyst pointed to a global context in which low rates in developed countries trigger a great appetite for risky investments, such as those offered by the country, and underestimation of the pesos, with the effects that this is still an embryo in the economy. The balance of payments is already a surplus, there is more revenue from tourism, higher consumption of services, and this, for its part, translates more activities and more work. There are 16 sectors, according to reports read by Wall Street strategists, showing reactivation. The problem, again, is that they need time. And the time will be for the Casa Rosada resource are increasingly scarce.
In the absence of more realistic results, what is imposed is uncertainty, an element that he said Infobae Daniel Kerner, an analyst for Latin America Eurasia Group, he feeds "I think markets are right, the election scenario is very uncertain, and there are many things that can change, but if electoral insecurity affects the economy and which in turn affects Makri, there is a self-fulfilling prophecy."
"Today nobody believes that the government can stabilize the economy and in this context Makri is electorally weak, so it seems impossible to seem likely: Kristina Kirchner", added a specialist.
With a further degree of pessimism, another investment strategist in one of the most important banks, off record that the market puts its thumb on Macri's new candidacy. "Come what does not win," he synthesized.
But that may not be a bad news, explained the expert. "If Makri went now and leaves his place elsewhere, Cambiemes still has the chance to win". It is the position of those who will see the market with good eyes the governor Maria Evgenia Vidal Take the post or at least try. They even consider it a triumph Roberto Lavanga It can be a guarantee of a certain continuity. The worst scenario for the financial world is the return of Kristina Kirchner. At that moment, optimists and pessimists coincide.