crisis It is not only economic but also political. Even more: on
economic crisis broke out because it exists
political crisis. There is a government with a mandate until December 10 and there will be no elected government until, at least,
October 27. There is a president who has lost a lot
choice Who chose no one. And there it is
presidential candidate who won those elections in a devastating way, but has yet to be elected.
The Argentine economy has ceased to be healthy since the discipline of twin discipline was abandoned: trade and fiscal. Or because soybeans stopped trading at more than $ 500 a tonne. It happened a long time ago. Since then, it has switched between issuing counterfeit currency, with no real reserve or debt reserves.
Nestor Kirchner preferred to borrow not the Monetary Fund but the expensive loans of then-prominent Hugo Chavez. His wife chose the monetary issue, perhaps because the country was already out of international financial markets.
Macri He has returned to debt to finance a huge inherited fiscal deficit, while reducing it. But it ended up in the hands of the Monetary Fund, which is seeking a tough adjustment plan. It was a plan that was rejected last week by a large majority of society. In short, Argentina never misses the opportunity to build twin crises: political and economic.
The question, which no one is answering for now is how the country will continue until December (or until October) under similar conditions, when the dollar is around 60 pesos, the country risks an increase in satellite and Argentine funds and bonds collapse. Everything that had to rise fell and everything that had to fall increased. The economy stopped abruptly. No one sells, no one buys. Except for the essential. The government is right when it says that Makri was chosen by the market last Friday because they read the latest research, all wrong, very favorable to the government, though it always loses. And on Monday they voted against Sunday's winners of the general collapse. Chryslerism blames Makri for the market crisis. As Juan Carlos de Pablo says, if market reaction were against Makri, the stock market and stock market crisis would have happened on Friday, not Monday. Makri's obstacle, however, is that it is not the markets that elect the president, but the society of his country. The political crisis does not offer good solutions. The president is still a candidate.
Alberto Fernandez He is, in turn, a candidate for the grand winner but has not been elected president. If you look at Makri's trajectory, he is a politician who never gave up before he was definitely defeated. The prospect of a change in the results of Sunday's October re-use of De Paul's formula is possible, but unlikely. The president should raise three or four points, but also require Alberto to miss at least three points.
Macri, in fact, can grow unless the crisis deepens. When the day is over, he is the head of government and responsibility will fall on the wider social sectors. It is likely that a significant percentage of the votes of Roberto Lavagna and almost all of Jose Luis Espert and Juan Jose Gomez Centurian (lean in all three cases) go to Macri in October. Its benefits could also be derived from foreign votes, which did not exist in the primaries but will exist in the first round. A larger influx of voters, a majority in favor of the President, should not be ruled out.
The only difficult equation for realization is that Alberto has a smaller percentage than he took on Sunday. Only he needs to get 45 percent of the vote to be president. He scored nearly three points more than needed. Why would I lose them? Daniel Scioli in the second round of 2015 received just one point more than Alberto last week. Fernandez retains almost all of Skioli's votes. Macri lost 18 points in the same election. Those numbers are what make Sunday's turnaround, but unlikely for Makri.
The red circle of businessmen, bankers and financiers is desperate. What will be the volatility? How long will it take? No idea emerged from that quarry is viable. Macri needs to change the cabinet, they say. Seventy days until the last week of October is eternity for politics. But at the same time it is too scarce to change the underlying policy and, above all, to see its results. The offers would have little acceptance of a government that is closer to the end than it goes. Macri now has to concentrate on doing specific things and leave the election campaign ahead of the election. Sensitive social sectors have already noticed that markets, here and abroad, do not trust Christina Kirchner any more than Alberto Fernandez. The memory of Christina is that she leads the markets. Although Alberto started slipping a few sentences to calm them down (there will be no default, the nation's debts will be honored, we will not be Venezuelan), he was supposed to do so more formally, perhaps at a press conference. But it is equally absurd to ask, as some members of that red circle claim, to appoint a cabinet now. He is not elected president, no charge or charge of distribution. That would be irresponsible. When Fernandez rejects that idea, reason helps.
Macri was reprimanded for not making self-criticism in public. It is time to recall a phrase by Felipe Gonzalez: “I do self-criticism alone. Public criticism of me is the work of my opponents. I'm not going to do my job. " Macri thinks the same, though he does not say this with Felipe's grace, especially when he began the season of antimacrism even among those who were matriarchs until Sunday afternoon. The question is not what he speaks (or does not say) in public, but what he has been doing ever since. It is obvious that the economic voice has prevailed and many people are in a very bad shape. Do you lack the sensitivity to know how far the adjusting rope can stretch? Did the tax burden, compounded by rising rates and escalating inflation, upset even the middle class ever the brutalist? It is likely that it all happened. The difficulty of the poorest sectors is a huge truth. His anger is upright. The middle class (an important part of what Makri left) is more sophisticated and in demand. Less faithful. Macri should answer, possibly today, the two social classes.
Everything in the red circle. There is a real concern among some entrepreneurs because their companies have lost value, because they do not sell and because they have to keep paying salaries. There are other entrepreneurs who openly admit that they have lived better with Christina Kirchner. There is no shortage of those who favor a government that questions the free trade agreement with the European Union. They don't want competition. They never practiced it. And they also have an impact on those who appeared in Oscar Fenton's notebooks. Imagine a time without judicial regret. There are angry bankers from Makri and there are others very close to him.
Macri must care that the escalation of the crisis does not end by lighting a fire near him. Alberto must worry that this old instinct of Peronism does not seem to turn to a non-Peronist president as soon as he sees it weakly. He has already said that Makri must complete his mandate. But I should do more among the Peronists, perhaps reserved, to stop any attempt at destabilization. The political crisis must reduce its intensity to calm the economy. The roads are not many, but two simultaneous crises are unbearable for any society.