Friday , July 30 2021

Third parties in the quarrel: Let's look at the candidates out of the crack – 01.01.2015



In the national government and in the province of Buenos Aires everyone is betting that polarization will be marked as never before before the election competition. Maurice Macri vs. Christina Kirchner. Or, according to the official liberal campaign, the "future" versus the "Past".

In this scenario they warn it for now there is not too much room for the widespread middle avenue announced by Sergio Massa in 2015. "There was no room before or now," said an official with access to surveys. The government felt comfortable to resist and polarized with Kirchner. They assume that Kirchner also prefers to compete with Macmurus, and not to anyone else. "We do not ask, the offer can not order an electoral demand; that is the other way around," they repeat in the Cabinet's Cabinet.

However, the options in the optional fan are multiplied. In the Federal Alternative, they add candidates with different profiles. Within that group, Sergio Massa and Juan Manuel Urbutei are those with the most potential voters in the pro-government elections. "It's like a trout copy of shirts; people like the original", Chicanea is one of the strategists of Maria Eugenia Vidal.

In Cambiemes, they are convinced that both the Rhine Front leader and Salta governor represent, to a greater or lesser extent, different versions with a peronistic filter of the two main protagonists of the election. "Massa is more like Christina, and Urtubay is more like Mauricio", cause.

Alternative peronists are not the only ones seeking to get through polarization. Media economist Jose Luis Expert has already decided to play. Until this year, the phenomenon of "libertarians", as some of their followers called themselves, was celebrated within the Change, as they inevitably seemed to lead the right-wing government at the center of the political spectrum.

Now the most secure is estimated if the economist loses points, it will hurt Makri more by Kristina Kirchner. Others, more adventurous, bet that STEP could work as a first round and that the "two points" that the Expert could get will migrate to changes in general elections, in which macros do not lose hope – according to polls The isomonomy they quote – they impose in the first round 42 points against 30 of the former president. Canceled by bullet PRO postcard, which disagrees with what most of the polls show.

Expert, in other measurements that relativize officialism, adds 5 points. They are soon the same figures as Florence Randazzo got in the legislature from 2017 in which Esteban Bulrich defeated Kristina Kirchner. Now at Casa Rosada they say that the voters of Christina's former interior minister do not have to vote for the former president if Chivilcoyan's leader did not appear.

More to the right of the Expert, he is PRO's ally in the Congress. Deputy Alfredo Olmedo, who has legislative positions 11 years ago and now integrates the Cambiemos interim, continues to present itself as an outsider of traditional politics and wants to grow as a local expression of the effect he has given to Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. In the Executive for now does not take it seriously.

The polarization paradox is that everyone talks about the electorate divided into more or less three-thirds. One is a difficult government vote. Another will vote for Christina Kirchner in each scenario, and a third, independent will turn to one or the other in the heat of the economy. At Casa Rosada, of course, they insist that Christina generates more rejections than the president.

"We need to be careful not to be too harsh with Massa so we can catch their voters," one of the electoral engineering officials says, considering how to continue adding voters among the leaders of the FR. "It's hard, because We have already taken everything we couldhe explains.

The former minister – with blind confidence in the chances of the ruling party – indicates every time he can in the dark room there are only ravioli or pets. There will be no room for a new offer in the menu.


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