The current account advance fell to 59.59%. The reduction was passed on to a discount on checks on the stock market and, with less power, on personal loans
The fall in rates that prompted the Central Bank this week began, little by little, to move the general public. In the past three days, the monetary organ has taken from 56.60% to 54.89% the average rate it pays for Lelix and has motivated banks to lower the interest rates that they charge to the companies for the advance payment on the current account by 171 percentage points in order to take it on average 59.59% per annum, the lowest level since the end of August last year.
The performance that BCRA defines each day for its liquid letters is the rate of monetary policy, which also serves as a reference to the financial system. Thus, with each movement of this speed up or down, the shortest credit lines are the most dynamic for the changes.
In fact, the interest in current account progress was kept on a strong jump between September and October, first when the then-president of the Central Bank "Luis" Toto "Caputo" took the rate to 60 percent, and later, when Guido Sendleris faced difficult adjustment monetary with rates up to 73% per annum. Thus, the price paid by companies to disclose money from their current accounts exceeded 78% per annum.
Now, according to the BCRA average, the rate is 59.59%, which is the lowest level since August 30, when it was 47.2% manually. It should be noted that the number is the annual nominal rate (TNA), because the total financial costs (CFT) is about 76%. Of course, this number, over the difficult monetary adjustment, reached over 100% per year.
The current account advancement contract, commonly known as "discovered", is the line most used by small and medium enterprises to finance their daily cash. With the rate increase, the shares of these loans fell in the amount of 29.781 million dollars in the first three months of the monetary adjustment and so far in January it is still stable.
One of the main factors that accelerated the fall in rates this week was the change made by the monetary agency in the way Lelix quit daily. Strictly speaking, at the beginning of each round, the indicative amount to be reported is reported, and then effectively allocates that figure. No more weight or less weight. Before, on the other hand, it ended with placing more money than indicated and the fall in the rates was heavily withdrawn.
What does this change mean and how does it affect the rate? Basically, because banks now offer lower rates, for fear of being out of that court and not paying their pesos. "BCRA has changed the bidding method. Now they publish an amount and how banks do not want to stay out, the rate of endogeneity decreases faster," explains Santiago Lopez Alpharo, partner of Delphos Investment.
Where this impact first affected the call market, the loans between the one-day banks, which are the thermometer of the liquidity of the financial system. On Friday this rate was on average, at 53.21%, while yesterday it worked around 46% annually.
What prompted the monetary agency to accelerate the fall in rates was the dollar's nominal decline, which by Monday this week was increasingly moving away from the zone of non-intervention and did not even react to the acquisition of BCRA. During the week, with Leliqs auctions, he injected only 79,000 million pesos and remained within the goal of zero growth of the monetary base to close another month with consent.
Thus, with more pesos on the market and with a lower yield for pesos, the dollar did not take long to react in an upward direction.
In parallel, the rate paid by small and medium-sized enterprises to check for a discount on the Buenos Aires stock exchange also accompanied the trend marked by the Central Bank. According to the daily report of the Argentine securities market, where these instruments are used, yesterday the discount rate of the guaranteed 30-day check was about 43.26% per annum, and 43.10 for the 60-day term, a little more than one percentage point from the previous week.
In the ranks for families, some of the fall in rates began to transfer to the cost of personal loans, albeit in a much more lukewarm way. According to the latest BCRA data, January 29, the average rate for these loans is 63.2%, almost at the same level as in the previous days, but almost two points below what they charged 10 days ago.
"In lines such as personal loans, we have to wait for the rate cut to consolidate before transferring it to customers. It is always sensitive to changes, but not as sensitive as those in the short term," they explained from a private bank.
By the time it's down
In the city they believe that falling rates will continue in the short term, but not so aggressive as it was this week. "We have to see how tariff increases and transport affect inflation, it's still not very clear that it is decreasing," says the head of the local banks' chart. "This is what will define the fall in rates going in a sustainable way," he adds.
It seems that the outer context plays in favor of local funds. Although it was almost diminished that the Federal Reserve would not change the rate yesterday, its confirmation gave a new impetus to the stock and bonds in pesos. This reduces the pressure on the dollar and can give the monetary agency more air to continue reducing the rate, without fear of impact on the exchange rate.
Be as it may, and although the rates are at a very high level, this week's downsizing has begun to transfer to families and companies, something crucial for the productive sector to start raising its head.
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