Sunday , April 11 2021

The fear that Christina Kirchner is not paying the debt is a spirit that shocks the government and returns to him as a boomerang



Although there are indications that make it doubtful that it is an official powerhouse that spread the story that he was the one who scared investment funds ahead of them that a possible government of Christina Fernandez de Kirchner I would not know the agreement with the IMF and would restructure the debt with the bondholders, Emanuel Alvarez Agis announced on Monday with one of the highest authorities in the government's financial area and offered to deny publiclyif he thinks it could contribute to calming the panic on the financial market that catapulted the dollar above $ 45 and the country's risk over 1,000 basis points.

The official denied all responsibility to the government in the multiplication of that version, thanked him for the gesture, but he replied that he did not consider it necessary for former Kishnner's deputy minister of economy to come out to clarify anything.

It would not be for the first time an economist to give statements abroad, which, with or without intentions, destabilize the government. The most basic case happened in the middle of the government hack Raul Alfonsin and in the middle of the campaign with which it will end Carlos Menem at Casa Rosada. That was Domingo Felipe Cavallo who on a US tour as an economist for the pioneer candidate said that if the IMF held the current deal with Argentina, it would be interpreted as supporting radical nomination Caesar Angelos, and that in this case, if Maname triumphed, he would not be aware of the external debt that basically was in the portfolio of several leading banks in the world.

It is impossible to determine whether, for this reason, Kavalo action that the Monetary Fund finally canceled the agreement, hampering the crisis that was already acute. Even though it is also counter-productive, the situation was such that even without the former Minister of Economy's economy in Convertibility, as well as Fernando de la Rúa, the radical government would have ended poorly.

But unlike Cavallo, former Kirschner official confirms that he said nothing destabilizing or similar to what was given to him at any of the bank meetings and investment funds he had in New York more than a month ago in his role as current. from PxQ consulting services. He bases the denial that none of his interlocutors came out to support the version, and in testifying that his local clients can give out what he is telling them about the current situation.

There is no doubt that the big financiers and businessmen here and abroad do not want Christina to come back and that most of them are scared and consider it quite likely that any possible government will concretize what the version says.

However, outside of prejudices, certain media constructions, by Kirchner's two economists and leaders from the second and third lines and rhetoric of Christina's rhetoric of economic power, the review of her government has no history of the gravity of something akin to ignorance of external obligations .

On the contrary and saving differences in style and time, both Amado Budu, when he was a minister like Axel Kitsyofof during his term at the helm of the economy, was on the idea that Argentina should go to external financing. I would not even be able to try it because it was shocked by the rejection of Nestor Kirchner, who presided over a country where there was still no shortage of dollars and it was feasible to "live with what is ours" and to give air to independence and autonomy. Even in advance paying the Fund for over $ 9,000m with the wrong arguments for avoiding conditions that that agency can not impose, for the simple reason that there was no agreement in force.

Kicillof had the approval of Christina Kirchner to resort to the international capital market and take over debt. It was a very different country than the one presided over by Nestor Kirchner, with an economy that already hit the external limitation. From persuasion or forced by circumstances, it was removing obstacles that closed the way to external financing. He paid Sydia's lost lawsuits, agreed to cancel the debt with the Paris Club, but could not pass the last barrier that was a conflict with the funds for the vultures.

It is undisputed that the financial world would applaud the respect of the decision of the late judge Thomas Grissa, as well as Mauricio Macri shortly after the assumption. However, among this rebellion before an unjust decision in favor of vulture funds and a possible decision to make default with private creditors investing in public securities in good faith, there is a huge distance.

A clearly unfounded species

Neither Kitsilof, Kirchner spokesman, nor Alvarez Agis in his role as a consultant with open sympathy for Kristina Kirchner, said nothing disturbing the direct interests of banks, investment funds and other creditors. Most often, both referred to the need to reformulate the current agreement with the Fund. A softness, if compared to what they propose by well-known economic economists.

However, it is absolutely objective that the subjectivity of the financial world fears, inter alia, that Christina's return involves forced restructuring or even more extreme decisions. If they are not afraid of this, securities prices would not collapse and the country's risk would not oscillate with 1,000 basis points as a result of the fact that they are much more sold than those who buy tidal betting.

That subjectivity is fully promoted by the Government, which from Marie Down does not cease to break that the attitude of the markets originates from Christina's fear, without knowing that there will be no fear of "returning to the past" if the results of the government were not catastrophic. And this insistence does nothing but feed the bond sale, running against the pesos, and everything bad that gets rid of inflation, recession and, therefore, a greater election complication for the government.

They spit. With aggravating circumstances, the effect of the boomerang is detrimental to the whole country.


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