The dollar concludes with sincere weakness the first month of 2019. In that period currency give more than 2% and Re-occurrence of the Central Bank as a buyer The forex had zero repercussion in the evolution of the type of change.
Is it a market? much more cherished by liquidation of exports, with a leading offer of record harvest wheat, plus re-importing funds transferred to pesos to take advantage high interest rates and very low ratings of domestic stocks and bonds, found that the dollar has little demand in a square that daily works around 800 million USD, a rarity in the first month of the year.
Diego Martínez Burzaco, an analyst at MB Inversiones, said that "the external financial situation is the one that givesand ejaculation of capital inflows in the region, mainly in Brazil and to spill in Argentina. "
In the branches of National Bank the US currency is sold $ 37.90, falling from 50 cents to 1.3 percent. It's the lowest price since December 3 last year. In average on the banks of the city of Buenos Aires is offered 38.05 pesos.
As it happened in January, the Central Bank made foreign currency purchases on the wholesale market, an initiative that has not taken place since June 2017. This Thursday got others $ 50 million at an average price of 37.0896 pesos. Thus, in the first month of the year the accumulated purchases for 560 million dollars, within the margin imposed by the contract stand still with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of about 700 million dollars a month.
The monetary entity proposed to buy back the currencies as soon as the wholesale price is below floor of the "non-intervention" zone, which this Thursday marks $ 37.86, and $ 37,886 for February 1.
From Survey for traders "BCRA's goal is to move the exchange rate within the free floating band will change and therefore the market expects the person between today and tomorrow to define it if you raise the amount of everyday purchases from $ 50 million to $ 150 million to generate greater demand for foreign currency. "
Martinez Bourzaco said Infobae that "the Central Bank must consider the use of additional tools for maintaining the exchange rate within the non-intervention zone, such as permitting banks gradually report their exposure of foreign currency within its net value, which today is 0 percent. "
Martinez Bourzaco noted that "Central" to accelerate the reduction of interest rates and do a fine surgical job to measure it Market sensitivity, so that shares on fixed terms do not go to the dollar in a meaningful way, "especially" in election year in which at some point dollarization will be accelerated of portfolios ".
While they were reduced by more than 4 percentage points in January, from under 55% per year, they are still high enough to put brake on reactivation of the economy and they are ballast for eventual increase of the dollar, a conservative position that in this framework can not compete with such proceeds in local currency. At the same time, high rates and "comfortable exchange rate" today are essential for slow down inflation.
The MB Inversiones economist also observed "laceration banks, because the BCRA can open the liquidity point to allow a reduction in the price of money and stop paying some lace. "Since the advent of Guido Sandleris of the entity's central bank allows banks to integrate LELIQ strings to encourage them to continue collecting deposits. In this way, "banks will return to their role of natural financial intermediation," says Martinez Burzaco.
Is the DOLLAR DIRECTOR?
The unpredictable evolution of the exchange rate in recent months, today a 2% under free floating, add tension when it is considered that inflation has maintained a significant pace despite the gradual descent.
The green ticket reached record on September 28, at $ 41.85 for sale to the public and $ 41.25 wholesale, a movement that many analysts believe is exaggerated. Ever since, at last four months the dollar lost 10%, while in that period average retail prices rose by almost 14 percent.
So the dollar in Argentina lost purchasing power by 21.1% between October and January, when all other financial alternatives offer a positive income.
Of course, the exchange of competitiveness It does not depend only on the dollar. On appreciation of other currencies of commercial partners in relation to North American currencies mitigates this assumed "postponement of the exchange rate" limited in the very short term.
For example, in Brazil, the dollar lost 9%, from 4.01 reality from September 28 to 3.65 this Thursday. In that sense, the Argentine peso followed the realization of the currency of its main trading partner.
Nor should we lose sight of the fact that the cost of a green loan in Argentina today is 90 percent higher than it was a year ago, when it closed January 2018 to $ 19.65 wholesale and $ 19.93 a little. That rate almost doubled the inflation per year 47 per cent.
According to the Index of Multilateral Real Exchange Rate (ITCRM) of the Central Bank, the current competitive advantage of the Argentine peso Similar to January 2014 and September 2011, and a 15% higher than that reached December 17, 2015, when the administration of Maurizio Macri eliminates the exchange control or "cepo".