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Star of the summer: why the stock market grew by 20 percent in dollars so far in January



During 2018, Argentina's assets were within the group of emerging markets penalized by capital outflows with expectations of rising interest rates in the United States. In addition, they led the group, with the Argentine peso devaluing little more than 100%. On the stock market, this exchange turbulence generated a loss of 50% in Merval's value during 2018.

So far in January, the month that left the wheel today to mark the official closure, the leading panel of the stock market (the S & P Merval) climbed to 36,039 points. Regarding the starting point of the year, when the total offer of private equity reached 30,292 units, the increase was 18.9%. In dollars, he jumped 19.7 percent.

Analysts say that in the current context of "good financial news", comprised of a stable exchange rate, low interest rates and a country risk that falls for most of the month, Merval's data is highlighted as a star So far this summer, mainly motivated by external factors.

The closing of the wheel from yesterday saw an increase of 1.5% compared to Tuesday, driven by the increase in the Superelel Group (4.19%), Aloor (3.49%), ByMA (2.83%), French Bank (2 , 54%) and "Teneris" (2.29%), according to data from the Argentine stock exchanges and markets.

On the foreign market, meanwhile, Argentine ADP, confirmed for holding shares on the Wall Street list, showed similar increases, with the supervisor (3.8%) and MercadoLibre (3.1%).

"Argentina is linked to the improvement of the markets seen in the international scenario. January for the new countries in general was a very good start of the year caused by the publication of US Federal Reserve rates, "he explained. Fernando Baer, ​​an analyst at Quantum Finanzas. The latest issues of US monetary authority generate an expectation on the international market since 2019 with fewer ratios of reference rates.

In that sense, the the improvement of the conditions for the emerging markets had an additional factor for Argentina in the assumption of Jair Bolsonaro as President of Brazilaccording to Christian Butler, from Butler Servicios Financieros. The analyst expects Bolsonaro to positively affect the region after 2018, in which Latin America was one of the most affected areas.

Among other variables, positive international influence can be observed in the downward trend that showed the country's risk during the first weeks of January, despite the fact that in the last three wheels the premium on government bonds has risen. "In principle, tends to be a negative correlation between the country's risk and Merwal's price: when someone goes up, the other tends to go down and vice versa, "commented Amilcar Collante, of CESUR (Center for Economic Studies in the South).

The economist felt that the risk of a negative country was used by large companies with access to international markets. Many are listed on S & P Merval. "We are now in the process of returning to the middle, the market was predicting a downward line at the time and now it is doing the same upward trend," Collte added.

Analysts do not exclude a possible milestone, because the political factor, that is, the presidential election, begins to weigh more. "At the domestic front, the macroeconomic problems have not disappeared," Butellle concludes, "there were no major changes outside of a kind of change that equaled."


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