According to analysts, inflation started a trail with growth trend from August and, although there will be valleys, it will maintain its growth and will reach between 3.3% and 4.1% per month in the next semester, despite the changes in dollars. This trend was highlighted in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), a one-month survey of Central Bank (BCRA).
The average of the respondents calculated their predictions on inflation up, estimating that 2020 will close with inflation between 36.4% and 36.7%. For its part, from BCRA reported to mean a inflation generally between 17m4 and 17.1 points lower than 53.8% from 2019.
The problem is that the data is an estimate that is 1.3 or 0.9 points higher than the forecast from a month ago. October is also the first time since the pandemic began that respondents have been short on their calculations, expecting inflation a total of 3.2% and finding 3.8% reported by Index.
Hand in hand with this, the predictions for inflation by 2021 they have increased from 48.9% to 50% and adjusted the increase in their estimates.
They estimate on inflation November was between 3.5% and 3.6% and they maintain the calculation of 4% for December and 4.1% for January and also recorded increases for the February and March forecasts.
In this way, analysts believe inflation It will be saved in 2020, due to the freezing of the rate and price agreements, started to be seen in the last months of the year and will continue in the first four months of 2021, according to the official announcements published by end of freezing in March.
The economy, showing recovery, will lead to a return to the distribution supply, for strong wage adjustments in recent years. The participants of REM calculate a range of 10.9% to 11% of each in the economy this year.
However, they estimate that having fun In reassembling the activity, it will grow by only 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and continue to be average in the first quarter of 2021, where the improvement is less than 1 point.
The activity will allow the growth of Gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.8% in 2021, although it will lose strength in 2022, reaching 2.5%.
Sincerely dollars, the projection estimates that it will close at 83 USD per year and will reach 126.45 USD by the end of 2021, showing a nominal devaluation of the peso of 38.6% this year and 52.3% for next.