Saturday , April 17 2021

Investors smelled of the possibility because of the crisis in Argentina



"Find my sovereign country of high performance and the IMF program that pays so much money," he said. Jean-Dominique Butiutofer, director of fixed income in the development of markets in Atlanta, Voya Investment Management, which oversees about 205 billion US dollars. "We can agree on the growth prospects, the unexpectedly out of control inflation, the dynamics of debt after the currency depreciation and technical problems. But at these levels, the value is created," he said.

Refers to figures like these: 16.2 percent in dollar bonds with maturity for three years or even better, 17.8 percent in bonds maturing in two. At a time when US bond yields have a yield of 2.5 percent, and those on other more stable emerging markets, such as Chile, only 4 percent, these are attractive figures, especially in a land that has received a historic loan of 56,000 million US dollars from the International Monetary Fund, reduces its fiscal deficit and even registers a trade surplus.

"I would be very prepared to leave Argentina completely," he said in an interview. Paul McNamara, director of GAM's investment in London, which oversees about $ 135,000m. "The currency is cheap and, unlike what happened last year, they have a large external trade surplus."

Former Deputy Minister Kristina Kirchner proposed a ceiling for the risk of a dollar and a country

Of course, There are many things to worry about. One is the country's history of non-compliance. He did not pay bonds investors for 15 years, until finally they reached an agreement in 2016, months after he assumed the presidency. Mauricio Macri. The peso lost more than half of its value last year and is on track to repeat itself as the world's best currency in 2019. And perhaps the most relevant is the threat that Macri will not achieve re-election in October and will lose her populist predecessor, Christina Fernandez de Kirchner. Concerns about his return to power after the election have proven to exceed Makri motivated collapse this week.

In the absence of six months for the election, Macri's popularity was hit, as the economy is undergoing a second recession in his government, with an inflation exceeding 50 percent, which prompted the Executive Committee to publish price controls that, in the opinion of analysts, are signs of panic. But Jaime Durán Barba, who accompanied Macrie during his political career, says investors are exaggerating. Now focus on polls, he says, "it's absurd."

Volatility eThis is typical for emerging markets, said Jan Deh, London's research director at Ashmore Group, which manages about $ 85 billion.

"If you are afraid of market volatility, you do not have to be in this business," Dion shot. "Volatility is a constant feature of emerging markets, but we know that constant losses are small in comparison. Volatility is, in any case, absolutely your best friend."

In addition, there is a good chance that inflation will drop from now, creating a window of opportunity in support of Macri leaps, according to Whitney Becker, founder of New Yorker Totem Macro, who advises assets that have more than US $. 3 billion dollars.

Local investors also look for offers. The state pension fund of Argentina bought the so-called Thursday Local government bonds (bonds in dollars are sold only nationally) with the expiration of 2020 and 2024, according to people with direct knowledge of the subject.


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