Saturday , July 31 2021

forecast rise in the price of oil by 25%



For market criteria, the next year increases will be in line with the dollar, crude oil and inflation

Announcements for increasing tariffs for electricity and public transport, announced this Thursday in the Finance Market, make it complicated by what economists see as a balance between the search for lower inflation and the betting on the tougher dollar for the next year.

Increased transport increases will reach 38% between December and March. In terms of electricity, by August 2019, confirmed increases will jump by 55% compared to the beginning of 2019, while in gas rates the variation will be 35% for April.

"The combination of the three components stipulates that in 2019 the regulated tariffs will average an increase of about 40%, with a total impact of inflation of around 4 percentage points and a mark of resistance to disinflation, "explained Federico Furiasse, director of Eco Go.

In this context, it was known that oil could increase by 25% more during the first semester of 2019.

The nation's energy secretary, who commanded Javier Iguazel by Friday, believes that with the ten increases registered by fuels this year, they have already attacked a good part of the backlog shown by the sector.

In the meantime, YPF state managers share the diagnosis: they are closing 2018 with an increase in prices that managed to encapsulate arrears that they hit and end up with a balanced point that would allow confrontation with 2019 otherwise, according to the slogan Profile.

Against this table, marketers estimated that next year lThe increase that will be confirmed will be more in line with the dollar's rising, crude oil and how inflation can fluctuate.

The document by the Federation of Fuel Supplies and Allied Allies of the Center of the Republic (Fekak) set scenes for estimating how much oil prices could move in 2019.

Taking into account the values ​​of the future contracts for the dollar (Rofex) and Brent oil (Nymex) and adjustments for inflation of taxes on fuels and carbon dioxide, and assuming that biofuels prices remain unchanged levels determined in November, the theoretical values ​​of liquid fuels will increase by 25% by next June.

"I think that next year we will run for inflation, but it is positive that we will have more stable increases. We will not have a delay that we achieved in 2018. Since the release of the prices, which was October 2017, the price was stabilized, but then all the indices jumped, the dollar jumped, the oil jumped and we were very late. I think that 2019 will be the year of a logical and predictable increase", Analyzed by Gabriel Bornoroni, president of the entity which has its headquarters in Cordoba.

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